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My raw, unedited notes about VMworld 2014

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Below are my raw, unedited notes for VMworld 2014 San Francisco.  These are published mostly as background for the article I wrote on vSphere 6.0 on The Register, which can be found here.

These notes then are mostly of historical interest and serve mostly to contrast what I noted at this event against what people are noting about VMware today.  The notes raw and unedited:

In truth, VMworld 2014 felt like an exercise in hyping the status quo, from all sides. Partners were terrified to talk about anything for fear that – and I quote – “they would get Nutanixed.” (I think I have at least two different CEOs saying that on film, if I dug through the GoPro.) If I wanted to get any information out of people about what was upcoming, I had to sign a half dozen NDAs in blood and agree to talk to them off-site because “they couldn’t risk VMware getting wind of their ideas.”

This probably accounts for the functional lack of any interesting announcements from partners at the event. What was announced was all minor evolutionary stuff. Everything beyond that occurred in closed quarters, and most folks would only talk to me if it was me alone. “We’ll talk to you, Trevor, but we have to ask these other folks to stay outside because we don’t know them or anything about them.” There was absolutely not that level of paranoia last year.

And, to be frank, VMware’s announcements were pretty limp too.

1) EVO was a huge disappointment. Maybe it will evolve with time, but I just felt sad as that unfolded.
2) vSphere failed to show up to the ball. I’d like to think it’s because VMware is actually listening to the community and rethinking its stance on “Web Client Only” for 6.0, but I’m too cynical to really believe that. Still, whatever the reason, VMware felt 6.0 wasn’t ready for prime time and they delayed it. Even knowing that it would get bad press. That’s gutsy and I have a lot of respect for it. (Even if the reasons aren’t likely to be the reasons I want to be the case.)
3) VVOLs are still a pipe dream. Sads.
4) Pointless rebranding exercises designed to make us even more confused, and the incremental evolution of some products (like VCAC, SRM, vCloud Suite, NSX, PowerCLI) to a new subversion number. So far so boring.
5) vRealize was announced which may or may not just be a layer of ease-of-use lipstick on existing technologies. The buzzword bingo was so thick I couldn’t tell and I still haven’t had a chance to sit down and cut through it.
6) Expansion of various public cloud offerings into the PaaS and SaaS arenas, all targeting USians (and mostly US.gov). Pass.
7) Some handwaving about Docker. I still haven’t seen the ability to vMotion something from a Docker container on one system to a Docker container on another, so I’ll yawn until someone can explain to me why I should care. Docker seems great if you want to rearchitect your programs…but if I was going to do that, why wouldn’t I just rearchitect for AWS?
8) New certifications. Yay?
9) Some endpoint stuff; Workspace Suite/Airwatch/Horizon that looked interesting. Vague promises that virtualising GPUs might suck less in the future. When it arrives, I’ll be pumped.
10) VMware bought cloudvolumes and which is nice, but then I started looking at pricing out the full endpoint solutions and went back to Citrix.
11) VMware announced Project Meteor, but I had stopped paying attention because it was in the future and I was pricing out Citrix.
12) “The Web Client will be faster, oh please, oh please stop hating it”. No mention of if all the other issues with the web client will be addressed. Everyone still hates it.
13) VMware vCloud connector now does layer 2 extensibility  I cheered.
14) VMware ROBO licensing announced, but I set up a meeting with Pistoncloud to discuss their offering after I realised the pricing was about 2x what I could sell it to my clients for, and even then would leave no margin for me.
15) vSphere 5.5 U2 comes with a C# client that talks to some of the new features!  I cheered, then almost died from the shock.

So, unless I missed something the only items that I took away from the event were:
A) Why was vSphere 6 delayed
B) If I ever get bored, assign time to figure out what the hell vRealize is supposed to be
C) Find out from someone when VMware will launch their version of Horizon that can compete with Citrix on GPUs. Will it be remotely price competitive?
D) vCloud connector has grown up into something awesome! Figure out how to use this with a Canadian VMware cloud provider that has zero legal US attack surface. Sell to clients.
E) New C# client that postpones need to move to Openstack for another year. Sacrifice goat to $deity in thanks.

There were a handful of partner discussions that were interesting, but I’m not allowed to talk about 95% of them, rendering those somewhat moot.

You know me as being the guy who never pulls punches, so let me be blunt: I am not remotely the only person who feels that VMworld 2014 was a bust. The most popular in-joke is “VMware threw a VMworld and forgot the VMworld”…though I prefer my more pitch #StorageWorld2014.

Storage, storage, storage, as far as the eye can see. What can any of you demonstrate that will differentiate your products for me?

If VMworld 2013 was the year I realised how important Hyper-V and Openstack support were to the ecosystem partners in the virtualisation industry, 2014 was the year I heard systems administrators and CIOs openly discussing adoption of alternative hypervisors. Where 2013 was the year where people looked at you funny if you said you were trailing Openstack, or using Hyper-V in production, 2014 was the year where those who only used one hypervisor vendor were practically ostracised to the edges of the gathering.

VMworld 2013 was about the vendors on the floor seeing demand for heterogenous environments, something that was provably uptaken in by VMworld 2014.

VMworld 2014 was about the vendors living in fear of telling VMware what they were up to, for fear their ideas would be stolen and cloned before they had a chance to build a market presence. It was also a year of some very open – and very bitter – griping by dozens of vendors about the politics – and the cost – of being a VMware partner. What will that mean for VMworld 2015?

Based on that, I have a lot of questions about VMworld 2015. I am talking to about 100 different vendors on their views and thoughts, but I am increasingly getting the feeling that VMworld is about to abruptly cease to be “the conference in the IT industry where the future is revealed and the backroom deals are made.” The real question is; what will be? Where will companies go to instead? Will the 2015 east-side startup ghetto be deserted? Will the 2015 west-side vFavellas choose instead to go to BUILD? Will “FossetCon” minicons expand dramatically?

These are questions I don’t have answers to, but am working on finding out as vendors de-stress and do their VMworld 2015 postmortems.

What is clear to me is that there is a brewing crisis of faith amongst the VMware ecosystem partners. Given that VMware’s greatest strength is its ecosystem – and when combined with the ever increasing reports of VMware’s internal politics being “a thermonuclear wasteland” – I am curious how this will play out and what it means for VMware as a whole.

VMware is clearly a powerful and capable technology company. They were able to birth EVO:RAIL in record time, and have managed to create many of the world’s most notable best-of-breed products over the years. They’re enormous, rich, have all the most important companies as their clients and they are still growing their customers and partners every year.

VMware isn’t going to fall. It isn’t going to collapse or evaporate or suffer some major financial cataclysm. That said, VMware may be on the cusp of stagnation. It has been bleeding its top talent for years, has alienated customers and partners alike (vTax, PEX, Web client, “getting Nutanixed”, difficulty/cost/timeframe for being a partner, time to get drivers certified, etc,) and shows no sign of dropping its prices deal with the reality of very capable competition from both Hyper-V and Openstack.

Something has to give. What will change, and who will profit from that change? Secrecy, fear and stagnation were the currents underneath VMworld 2014. Will they drive the flow of the industry through 2015? Only time will tell.

On the relevance of Social Media.

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This post is in response to comments made on The Register regarding one of my recent articles.  I’ve had to post it here as the character limit on The Register is 2000.

While yes, the opinions expressed in my Sysadmin Blog on The Register are my own, I would be willing to make the statement that on the topic in question (the rise of Social Media) they are indeed quite informed.

First: let’s admit that there does not exist primary science that conclusively and definitively pegs the exact % of our population for whom $social_media_site has become “the lens through which they view all content on the internet.”  I would go so far as to say that this is A) an impossibility and B) functionally irrelevant.  The % will be under constant flux as the habits of individuals (and groups) change.

But there are a number of studies that have been conducted so far that hint at this, and the reality of it is considered “common knowledge” amongst a certain brand of IPM nerd. The proof will out when the science is done, but studies to really refine the error bars around the exact % of users for whom this is true are only now getting underway.

One person you could talk to about this is Scott Galloway, professor at NYU School of Business. He is considered one of the more notable “digital strategy” experts. Consider also the numerous studies being done showing how little email is being used by “da yoof,” with Facebook rapidly slotting into the role that email once filled. (Many argue that Twitter is slotting into the role that Google once filled.)

Dr. Michael Fenichel – amongst many, many others – has done a great deal of hard, primary research into Facebook/Social Media/Internet usage.  Indeed, their research has convinced them that Facebook/Internet Addiction Disorder is a very real phenomenon, and should be added to the DSM V.

Beyond that, there are numerous industry studies that have noted – and then explored in depth – the reality of “$social_media_site has become the internet for X segment of the population.”  These are studies performed not by organisations who would benefit from Facbook/Twitter/etc. becoming a vehicle for advertising, but rather by organisations who have a driving need to know exactly how people shop, how they do product research and what influences their decisions.

Starting in 2007 we have a report from private equity firm Veronis Suhler Stevenson and PQ Media.  They note that for the first time in decades, 2007 saw people spend less time on traditional media and more time on the internet.  The study also noted a huge uptick in advertiser spending online as well as consumer online purchasing.  They predicted that by 2011, the Internet would be the largest advertising medium.

They were right.

In the intervening years, hundreds of studies have been run on the topic.  In 2009, we have a study from the Retail Advertising and Marketing Association (via BIGresearch).  They concluded – amongst other things – that moms (women with children younger than 18) spend way more time on social media than anyone else.  They also use social media for product research, trusting peer opinion above all other review methodologies.

Pew research in 2010 concluded that 58% of all Americans have done research for products online, numbers that start to get a lot larger as you adjust to look at the critical 18-32 age bracket.  While there was no social media component to this study, the thing that got everyone’s attention was the fact that internet users in higher-income brackets do significantly more online research than those in lower income brackets.

In September 2011, Nielsen released a report saying that social media (in which they include blogs) account for nearly 25% of all time spent online.  That’s more than double the amount of time spent in online games.  3/4 of all internet users participate in social media.

Critically, 60% of people with “three or more digital means of research for product purchases” discovered retailers or brands from a social networking site.  According to the same study, Americans spend significantly more time on Facebook – 53.5% – than any other site.

Again, these are merelly sample studies I am discussing.  There are hundreds of studies – and a lot of primary science – that cover this area of discussion.  These should give you some starting points.  An idea of how modern marketing folk got to the belief that social media is in fact an important outlet for brand recognition and advertising in today’s world.

Suffice it to say that the most critical demographic – 18 to 32 year olds – are strongly influenced by social media.  So much so that they skew the statistics for “all internet users” towards the realm of “depressing amounts of time spent on Facebook.”

That “the internet” is for some – indeed for an increasing number – Facebook, Twitter, Reddit or so forth is not merely “my opinion.” It is the considered opinion of several experts in the area; I have merely taken notice. More importantly; this trend is increasing.

These social media websites are now the lens through which an ever increasing % of our population absorb their daily dose of internets.

El Reg Blog Article: “Exchange 2010”

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I just upgraded Exchange 2010.  This article is all about my first impressions.

My Exchange conversion

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  • Published: Sep 9th, 2010
  • Category: My El Reg Articles
  • Comments: Comments Off on El Reg Blog Article: “Blackberry Security”

El Reg Blog Article: “Blackberry Security”

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This was a one-off article about how non-RIM handhelds are catching up to Blackberrys in the security department.

Lock up your Crackberries

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  • Published: Sep 9th, 2010
  • Category: My El Reg Articles
  • Comments: Comments Off on El Reg Blog Articles: “Office Communications Server”

El Reg Blog Articles: “Office Communications Server”

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El Reg Blog Articles: “DNS, Malware and You”

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This group of articles is all about DNS and Malware.  (Thoguh SPAM hangs off of it too.)  Interesting for server admins.

Blackhole your malware
Malware protection for the rest of us
It’s time to presume the web is guilty

El Reg Blog Articles: “Browser Security”

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While No longer writing articles in fixed sets of three, I do still tend to write clumps of articles with a common theme.  It’s usually because I write articles based upon what I am working on at the time.  This set of articles is based on browser security.  Frankly, I think they are critical for everyone to read.  Practice good Internet hygiene!

Ditch the malware magnet
Private lessons
Nothing suceeds like XSS

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  • Published: Sep 9th, 2010
  • Category: My El Reg Articles
  • Comments: Comments Off on El Reg Blog Articles: “User Experience Management”

El Reg Blog Articles: “User Experience Management”

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It has been a while since I have updated my personal blog with links to my published El Reg articles. This is the set I set on user experience management. it is also my last attempt at writing articles in “sets” of three.

User Experience Management (Theory)
User Experience Management (Implementation)
User Experience Management (Lessons Learned)

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  • Published: Jul 5th, 2010
  • Category: My El Reg Articles
  • Comments: Comments Off on El Reg Blog Articles: Why Group Policy Matters

El Reg Blog Articles: Why Group Policy Matters

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This set, Why Group Policy Matters, produced quite a bit of discussion.  There was an absolutely unholy amount of research to pull this set off; not something I think I can duplicate on a regular basis while working a regular day job.

Why GroupPolicy Matters (Theory)
Why GroupPolicy Matters (Implmentation)
Why GroupPolicy Matters (Lessons Learned)

Why GroupPolicy Matters (Theor
Why GroupPolicy Matters (Theory))
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  • Published: Jul 5th, 2010
  • Category: My El Reg Articles
  • Comments: Comments Off on El Reg Blog Articles: “VDI Power Management”

El Reg Blog Articles: “VDI Power Management”

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It has been a while since I have updated my blog with my most recent sets of El Reg articles, and I am thusly a little behind. Here are the links to my set on VDI Power Management.

VDI Power Management (Theory)
VDI Power Management (Implementation)
VDI Power Management (Lessons Learned)

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